Washington's GOP and the 2024 governor's race: Today So Far

• Washington's GOP has a positive outlook toward the 2024 governor's race. But there are challenges they face.
• Gov. Inslee has something special for state lawmakers in Olympia.

This post originally appeared in KUOW's Today So Far newsletter for May 4, 2023.

It didn't take long for Democrats to jump on the opportunity that Gov. Jay Inslee delivered this week. But so far, no prominent Republicans have announced their bid for the governor's office in 2024.

Within a day of Inslee announcing he will not run for another term, Attorney General Bob Ferguson announced an exploratory committee, via an online video that looks very much like a campaign announcement. Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz is another name that has potential. As of this morning, she has only said "Stay tuned. Big announcement coming soon…"

KUOW's David Hyde got in touch with Republican leaders around Washington. The initial impression is that they are feeling quite optimistic about their chances in 2024. That doesn't mean they aren't aware of the steep challenges ahead. Washington's GOP has to find a way to win over independents around Puget Sound, something it hasn't pulled off in a gubernatorial race since the 1980s.

“That's just the reality of the math," Washington GOP Chair Caleb Heimlich told KUOW. "There are not enough conservative voters in Washington state to carry an election and win.”

Another branch of the local GOP is the Mainstream Republicans of Washington (a video hyping their upcoming conference features Seattle City Attorney Ann Davison). Deanna Martinez, who heads the organization, tells KUOW that mainstream Republican candidates are the ones who have made progress in recent elections, the ones who stick to being fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

“We were disappointed with this last election," Martinez said. "The red wave didn't happen. But if you break it down, it was mainstream candidates that won.”

So far, it doesn't appear that any "mainstream" candidates are emerging.

Hyde notes that Republican Semi Bird (Richland), a “constitutional Christian conservative” and a "career American," has announced he is running for governor in 2024. He's already touting endorsements from Joe Kennedy (the Bremerton High School football coach who prayed with his students), and Joe Kent (the MAGA Congressional candidate who lost the last race for Washington's District 3).

Read the full story on current GOP perspectives on the 2024 election here.

State Republicans know they need to convince middle-ground Washingtonians to vote their way; they don't have enough statewide support among their own party. This means that watching Washington's Republicans in the upcoming gubernatorial election should be interesting. At least, it is for folks who tune into local politics like local sports (it's a terrible, toxic way to engage with politics, and no, I'm not proud of it). The Republicans' story over the next year and a half has the potential to either be the "Little Engine That Could," or a total train wreck. Because — big picture — this isn't just about swaying middle-ground voters. It's also about balancing the challenges within its own party.

Leading up to the 2020 presidential election, I wrote a series about GOP voter perspectives. What emerged was a tense spectrum. At one end were folks who said that Trump is not a real Republican, and at the other were MAGA voters throwing the term "RINO" around (and who were already saying Democrats steal elections, months before that conspiracy theory erupted in the wake of the 2020 election). There was an environmentalist who didn't support Trump and felt the president was more of a boogie man than a real threat; he was more interested in the state's policies and incentives around habitats. Then there was a voter who strongly opposed the United States' visa programs and seemed very much enamored with the story of Trump.

Basically, some in the party are banging their heads to a playlist filled with Slipknot and Gwar. Others are arguing how Serge Gainsbourg doesn't get enough credit for his contributions to French pop music beyond the brief rise of the yé-yé subgenre ... which was pretty great, too — I mean, come on, just listen to the range from "Bonnie and Clyde" to "Je suis venu te dire que je m'en vais."

In case it needs to be pointed out, that was a metaphor. You have to admit, that is a tough crowd to please. That's like getting local Seattleites and transplants together to settle the debate over whether or not the Seattle Freeze truly exists (I know, bad example, they all would just say they should get together to debate, but never actually call). This GOP scenario hasn't changed much since 2020. Can state Republicans attract independents, while also juggling supporters who promote a brand of politics that isn't palatable to the average Washingtonian, and another wonky group who stick to the classic "low taxes" sales pitch?

On top of that, whatever happens at the state level, the local GOP will always have to contend with the national party. No matter how moderate a local Republican could be, some politician out there in the USA, from their same party, is going to be talking about banning books, fighting with Disney, drag shows, and a range of other meaningless culture war battles. The local candidate is going to have to answer how they line up with that, while also balancing the sensitive local base.

Add all that up, and a Washington Republican getting to the governor's mansion is more difficult than The Warriors getting to Coney Island. Can you dig it? Still, The Warriors did manage to get to Coney Island, which is the sort of silver lining that the state GOP focusing on.

Washington Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler says his current term in office will be his last. His announcement was perhaps overshadowed by Gov. Jay Inslee's similar announcement this week. Both have been in office for notably long periods, and both are not running for re-election. Kreidler has been in office since 2000 and is serving his sixth term.

The decision comes after a bit of controversy surrounding the insurance commissioner, including allegations of mistreatment and troubling behavior around his office. Read the full story here.

When state lawmakers in Olympia closed out the legislative session recently, they left an embarrassing gap in the law, and that hasn't gone over well for them in the headlines. Gov. Inslee is now attempting to save some face.

Inslee has called for a special session so lawmakers can come up with a new drug possession law. Long story short, the state's previous drug possession law was ruled unconstitutional in 2021. Lawmakers established a temporary law that is slated to expire in June. The plan was to come up with a fix last session. That didn't happen and politicians started pointing fingers at each other when asked why.

They'll have another chance to come up with a fix starting May 16. If they don't succeed, Washington's local jurisdictions will each come up with their own rules around drug possession. That's already started to happen from town to town. Seattle leaders have already started considering a local law, and it's proven to be divisive.

Check out the full story here.

AS SEEN ON KUOW

A 4x5 foot hole in an onramp between the West Seattle Bridge and northbound Highway 99 in Seattle. The hole was discovered around 10 p.m. Tuesday. The tires on several cars were blown out by the hole before traffic was diverted. Repairs on the span are expected to take up to 10 days. (Washington State Department of Transportation)

DID YOU KNOW?

May the Fourth be with you! Today is the annual Star Wars holiday. Carrie Fisher is getting a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame today. Whether you're a fan of Luke Skywalker, or the three prequels that should never have been made, or are a newcomer thanks to the awesomeness that is "The Mandalorian," take some time to celebrate Star Wars today.

Star Wars is a great lesson about how important casting can be. For example, creator George Lucas reportedly wanted Orson Welles to be the voice of Darth Vader before opting for the iconic James Earl Jones who really set the tone for the character.

A range of actors were up for consideration for the role of Han Solo. Lucas is rumored to have sent scripts to Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, Burt Reynolds, and Jack Nicholson. A few others actually came in to audition, such as Kurt Russell, Sylvester Stallone, John Travolta, and Christopher Walken. Can you imagine Christopher Walken saying, "Never tell ... me ... the ODDS."?

Or even Al Pacino exclaiming, "Alright ... OK ... laugh it up, fuzzball! Hoo-Ah!"? It might have been fun to hear Pacino say, "Negative, Negative. We have a reactor leak up here. It's out of order. This whole starbase is out of order!"

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