They're not 'soccer mom' voters anymore: Today So Far

Election Day is tomorrow and some polls state that white suburban women are among the most influential blocks of voters. But this group is no longer the "soccer mom" voters of past elections.

This post originally appeared in KUOW's Today So Far newsletter for November 7, 2022.

Election Day is tomorrow. You have until 8 p.m. to turn your ballot into a drop box on Tuesday. KUOW reported this morning that about 32% of registered voters in Washington have turned in their ballots so far, which is down a few percentage points from the same time for the 2018 midterm election. The secretary of state, however, feels confident that there will be about 72% turnout in the end, which is on par with the last midterm.

Like it or not, pollsters, campaigns, and political parties like to carve up voters into chunks. They divide us up by education levels, income, gender, ethnicity and so forth. I've talked about how formerly incarcerated people are able to vote this year. Political parties are also targeting Asian and Latino voters to give them an edge.

Seattle Now reports that white suburban women voters are said to be among one of the more influential groups for this election. While this voting block isn't unheard of, let's be honest, you can't pin down a strict set of issues or way of thinking when it comes to any group that pollsters love to add up.

"Things have changed a lot," Cathy Allen told Seattle Now. "When they were 'soccer moms,' which was another code word, they were very apolitical in their partisanship, but they were definitely good voters."

Allen is a political consultant and an assistant teaching professor at the University of Washington and says we're talking about "a very unique group of people."

"It's not just about women anymore, it's about white women who are working, white women who are home raising kids, it's about white women who are very engaged in what's going on in their local community, and it's white women who watch a lot of TV and get a lot of information online. They've changed dramatically, in terms of what is influencing the largest block of people who vote, which are women."

Perhaps campaigns spend so much time targeting them because they are such a large voting group. If you go by the most recent poll from the Wall Street Journal, some of the messaging seems to be working — there appears to be a shift among white suburban women toward GOP congressional candidates.

I'm going to point out that the Journal only surveyed 297 women, and it doesn't exactly say which suburbs they're from. The burbs outside LA are different than the burbs outside of Boise or Boston. Heck, Issaquah is different than Renton, or Lakewood, or Snoqualmie, or Camas, and so on.

Democrats have been heavily pushing the abortion rights issue leading up to the election (they were asking my email inbox for money within minutes of the Supreme Court decision back in June). This may have been a miscalculation, however, if you're going by this poll, which states that the economy is top of mind for this voting block. Gas prices, grocery prices, and other costs are more immediate in the minds of these voters, and Republicans have always had good branding when it comes to economics (I'm not saying they are actually good at it, they just have good branding). According to Allen, however, that doesn't mean that the overturning of Roe v Wade hasn't had an impact this election season.

"This year, we've seen a huge number of women register to vote," Allen said. "In some cases, in our five most Conservative, Republican states, what we've seen is 15% more women than men registering (to vote) ... and Roe v Wade is the reason they give as to why they are motivated to get more involved."

Of course, we can break this all down through other influential factors. Allen notes that more women are running for office these days, and that is affecting campaign messaging. She points to the race between Democrat incumbent Patty Murray and Republican Tiffany Smiley — both campaigns are emphasizing their personal stories to make them more approachable. Another factor to consider is age. Older people tend to vote more, but if younger people get involved, that generally shifts outcomes.

"The ability to be authentic is what people are actually craving and is what is increasing young people's interest in wanting to vote. And when more young people vote, more women win."

Check out the full discussion with Allen on Seattle Now here.

For more election insights heading into Tuesday, I did a roundup of KUOW's 2022 election coverage last week (woven around the political dynamics of the '80s sitcom "Full House").

AS SEEN ON KUOW

Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell takes the stage shortly before Sir Mix-a-Lot opened the Cloudbreak Music Festival on Thursday, Nov. 3 at El Corazon to honor the Seattle hip-hop artists for his efforts to support local venues amid the pandemic. Sir Mix-a-Lot organized musicians and more to raise money in support of local small businesses and artists while many venues were shut down. November 3 was officially declared Sir Mix-a-Lot Day in Seattle and King County. (Niffer Calderwood Photography)

DID YOU KNOW?

Before he was Sir Mix-a-Lot, he was known around the Seattle area as Anthony L. Ray, and hip-hop wasn't his first career. In an interview on The Right Time with Bomani Jones, Sir Mix-a-Lot said that his mom pushed him to find job options other than rapping, however, "In 1990, I bought her a house and she started feeling it then."

Before he was seen on stage, Ray was more often seen on the side of the freeway, wearing an orange vest and picking up garbage for a little more than $2 an hour. Ray was always interested in electronics, however, so he eventually decided to lean into his knowledge of capacitors and transistors, and began fixing arcade machines.

"Then I came up, starting making big money, I was fixing pinball machines at an arcade and I got $5 an hour and I thought I was rich. The last job I had before I started making some music was working with a dude named Fred, he was demoing buildings. We had to go in there and break up toilets, we were carrying out old toilets. That was when I said, 'I got to find something else to do.'"

We all know the rest of the story. Sir Mix-a-Lot records started coming out in the 1980s, and in 1992, he had massive success with "Baby Got Back."

ALSO ON OUR MINDS

How to avoid sharing false or misleading news about the election

As Election Day approaches and the rhetoric and vitriol increase, it's useful to remember the wise and immortal words of Smokey the Bear: "Only you can prevent wildfires." That's because anyone who's online and shares information plays some role in shaping whether falsehoods gain traction.

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