Going the distance on social distancing: ‘It’s time to double down’

Public health officials in King County say physical distancing measures seem to be having a positive impact when it comes to the coronavirus outbreak.

KUOW's Kate Walters is here to tell us more.

The following interview has been lightly edited for clarity.

What are public health officials saying today as to how these stay home orders are working here?

Based on models, they're saying that it looks like we're going in the right direction, and that the social distancing measures that have been put in place are helping to slow this epidemic here.

Researchers are saying that their data shows people started changing their behavior in early March, with fewer people in commercial and mixed-use spaces, and more people staying at home, although they are still seeing a little bit more mobility on the weekends.

But they say that their data indicates that the epidemic is still growing, although it is being slowed, likely thanks to these measures. They still say more needs to be done.

We've seen it here at KUOW with many of our reporters, including you, working from home. What do they mean when they say the epidemic is slowing?

You can still expect to see the number of cases continue to rise. One thing they're looking at is the secondary transmission from each infection.

Basically, if I get sick, how many people am I likely to infect in turn? Their models are showing that the number has dropped from two to three people being infected by each person, to an estimate of now 1.4 people being infected by each person with COVID-19.

Here's Dr. Daniel Klein. He's with the Bellevue based Institute for Disease Modeling (IDM). That's the group that's been doing these models:

“We've seen some great headway, but our progress is precarious and insufficient, and we are not yet at the peak.”

One thing to note is that there's a fair amount of uncertainty with these models and numbers because among other things, we still don't have completely widespread testing. So there is limited data.

Dr. Klein says that certainty will rise as they get more data. I'm hearing we're still not at the peak of cases, but these measures are helping.

Does that mean we can ease back on this physical distancing that we've been doing?

No, in fact, public health officials are saying the message here is exactly the opposite of that. It's time to double down and hold the line. Here is Dr. Jeff Duchin. He's with Public Health Seattle and King County.

“It looks like we're going in the right direction, but we don't have a lot of certainty around that. And if it's true, it means we need to continue what we're doing because if we stop, the epidemic will come roaring back.”

Dr. Duchin was saying today that these measures are really keeping loved ones out of the hospital and keeping people alive. But, he says overall, we're in this for the long haul.

So many people would like to get back to normal. When might we see the social distancing measures relaxed?

That's a big question on everyone's minds. For public health officials, they don't exactly know. Dr. Duchin said he believes that social distancing strategies need to be continued for weeks. He said it'll likely be months before we can go back to sort of completely normal activities, pre-coronavirus activities. Of course, some measures may ease up over that time.

In general, Dr. Duchin said some of the things that they'd want to see in place before things like lockdowns are lifted are things like the ability to have widespread testing with rapid turnaround time in place, the ability to quarantine and monitor folks, and also a really good knowledge of the status of the healthcare system.

If hospitals are overwhelmed and still have a shortage of personal protective gear, for instance, that wouldn't be a good idea or a good time to go lifting all of the restrictions. Part of this response as we know is this stay at home order from Governor Inslee.

What happens if people don't follow this order?

State officials are going to start enforcing that order. And if there are complaints, they're going to ask people violating the order to stay home. If they don't comply then, they'll start issuing citations.

For business, that could mean having a license revoked. For individuals, it could mean an arrest. Criminal charges are also a possibility, but as a last resort if people continue to violate the order after things like citations.

You've been working from home for a few weeks, and following these rules closely as a pregnant woman. How have you been dealing with the social distancing?

I’ve definitely been talking to my dog a little more than normal! Thankfully, he's not talking back to me quite yet.

But, on a serious note, public health officials are saying it's fine and even important for folks to get outside and still move around, as long as they're practicing social distancing.

I've been trying to get outside and go on walks with the dog -- cross the street if I see someone coming -- and mostly sending the husband to the grocery store.

Listen to the interview by clicking the play button above.