Why beating inflation is turning out to be as hard as losing weight

Rafael Nam

April 10, 2024 / 5:58 am

caption: A customer shops at a grocery store in Chicago on Feb. 13, 2024. Annual inflation has eased significantly since two years ago but it has remained stubbornly above 3% this year.

Beating inflation is starting to feel a lot like losing weight, at least before the Ozempic era: Losing the first pounds is generally easier — it's getting rid of the last ones that's proving hard.

Data released on Wednesday showed consumer prices moving in the wrong direction once again, rising 3.5% in March from a year earlier, a little hotter than the 3.4% rise economists had predicted.

That also marked a slight pick-up from the 3.2% annual gain seen in February.

And inflation in March also turned out to be hotter than expected when measured on a monthly basis.

Inflation at these levels is still significantly better than it was two years ago, when it peaked at a decades-high of 9.1%.

But inflation is proving to be very stubborn. Although the Federal Reserve has managed to get inflation down significantly from two years ago, it's finding it exceedingly hard to push it below that 3% level.

That matters. That's because a rise of consumer prices above 3%, as it has been through this year, still feels high for many people across the country.

And for the Fed it poses a dilemma: Policymakers have made clear they want to see inflation moving more consistently towards its 2% target before it starts cutting interest rates.

It's hard to say when that will happen. Though there are promising signs, they are not conclusive yet.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell this month acknowledged that inflation appeared to be on a "sometimes bumpy path," and was resolute in holding firm on interest rates for now.

"We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2%," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech this month at Stanford University.

Why the last stretch in the inflation fight is so hard

There are several factors contributing to keep annual inflation above 3% — and they shouldn't be particularly surprising to anyone.

Rising rents were a big contributor to inflation last month. Car insurance costs also contributed to higher inflation.

And lately, another factor is threatening to push up inflation: gas prices. That's because oil prices have been rallying recently because of a number of factors including worsening geopolitics in the Middle East and improved global demand.

For now, investors are reassessing when the Fed might be ready to cut rates.

Earlier this year, markets had been hopeful the Fed would deliver more than the projected three rate cuts and could even be ready to move quickly.

But the stubbornness of inflation has investors reassessing their calls for interest rate cuts.

Investors are now bracing for fewer than three rate cuts and are eyeing the first potential rate cut in June or July.

Ultimately, however, like losing weight, much will depend on whether the Fed can finally shed the last "pounds" of inflation and get it to its goal of 2%.