Skip to main content

The U.S.-Iran prisoner deal was a diplomatic win. But how big?

Iran flag generic
Enlarge Icon

This week marked a milestone in relations between the United States and Iran.

The two countries finalized a prisoner trade on Monday in a deal that brought home five formerly detained Americans. It also freed $6 billion in frozen Iranian oil revenue, which the deal stipulates is to be used for humanitarian purposes.

The agreement is controversial — Republicans have criticized the Biden Administration for not extracting more concessions from the Iranian regime.

Members of the Iranian diaspora, like Seattle-based Voice of Iran volunteer Kat Vivarelli, have also been critical of the deal.

"They say that these funds will be monitored internationally, but we all recognize there are flaws in that logic," Vivarelli said.

This opposition reflects deeper changes members of the Iranian diaspora want to see the U.S. and allies take when it comes to dealing with Iran, said Alex Vatanka, the founding director of the Iran Program with the D.C.-based Middle East Institute.

"What they want to see is the United States — and particularly European partners of the United States — come up and have a serious policy," he said. "And in the eyes of many [in the] Iranian diaspora opposition, that policy can only mean one thing: to think creatively about bringing the Islamic Republic down."

Vatanka said there's no "watertight" way of making sure the $6 billion the Islamic Republic of Iran received doesn't end up being used for things the United States might not like to see. But Iran is in "terrible" financial straits, Vantaka added, and the money won't save the country from itself.

"Yes, it will help them in terms of their budget, it might help them in saving another few weeks and months and so forth. But it's not going to turn their economy around," he said.

Although Vatanka believes the Biden Administration engaged in the prisoner swap because of the president's belief that it was the "right thing to do," he said it's unclear how much Biden really wants to invest politically in this issue.

"He has been around long enough in politics to know that every American president since Jimmy Carter, in 1979, has tried various things to build bridges with this regime in Tehran, and they burn their fingers," Vatanka said.

U.S.-Iran relations are further complicated by Iran's moves to supply drones for Russia's war in Ukraine, and its continued violence against protestors following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, an Iranian woman who died in the custody of Iran’s morality police last year, sparking anti-regime demonstrations across the globe.

Iranians are still gathering to demand justice for Amini. Hundreds joined together at Seattle’s Westlake Park on Saturday to denounce Iran's Islamic Republic government.

Listen to Soundside's full conversation with Alex Vatanka by clicking the play icon at the top of this story.

Why you can trust KUOW