As Trump's GOP takes control, what’s next for Washington state’s Democrat-led legislature?

The balance of power in Washington D.C. has forcefully shifted to the right after this year’s election. The same can’t be said in Washington state’s capitol.

Democrats’ majority in the state Legislature may slightly grow by a few seats this election cycle, but it’s still short of a policymaking supermajority.

And while many members of the majority party are feeling hopeful about their plans heading into next year, they aren’t preparing for smooth sailing during the next legislative session in Olympia – especially when it comes to state spending.

Money talks

Lawmakers are facing a multibillion-dollar budget gap as inflation drives up the costs of programs.

“We’re going to be going through a process that … is going to be kind of a burst of cold water for legislators who have been first elected in the last few years,” said Sen. Jaime Pedersen (D-Seattle), the new majority leader in the Senate.

Pedersen estimates the budget gap at about $10 billion over the next four years. He said school funding and affordable housing will be a main focus for the Legislature, particularly special education and helping local school districts close their own budget gaps.

Democrats will likely consider new state taxes to bring in more revenue – including those aimed at the state’s richest residents.

Part of the rationale for new tax proposals, Pedersen says, is that voters largely rejected three anti-tax ballot measures this election. Those failed initiatives would have unraveled tax programs that pay for health, education and climate programs and services.

“Washington residents don't hate taxes in a blanket way – they’re absolutely willing or even enthusiastic to support changes to the tax system that make wealthy people pay something more like their fair share,” Pedersen said. “They also want to know that any tax increases are tied to important investments.”

That’s likely not an argument that will sway Republicans, who have regularly criticized Democrats’ spending and have long sought tax decreases or outright repeals.

Some Republicans worry Democrats’ interest in changing the state’s tax structure could discourage business owners from living here or trickle down to working class households. Fears that Democrats will try to expand the state’s new capital gains tax were a core campaign message among those seeking to repeal it this year, with many opponents to the tax calling it a “backdoor income tax.” But the state has strict rules on how income is taxed – and right now, income taxes in Washington are technically illegal.

Franken-policy

Meanwhile, enough has changed within the Democratic majority to reopen the door for some failed policies of the past – including a measure to slow rising rent costs.

Last session, a bill to cap rent increases met its demise after moderate Democrats blocked it. Next year, the calculus will be different. Two of the three Democrats against the proposal aren’t returning to the Senate, and a handful of new members are coming in.

“It’s likely that the voters have now elected a Senate in which there will be majority support for rent stabilization,” Pedersen said.

Lawmakers have talked for months about what the next version of a rent stabilization proposal could be, but that the details of the proposal are yet to be determined, Pedersen said.

Another proposal that lawmakers plan to revisit come January: a so-called “parents bill of rights” that the Legislature approved earlier this year. That initiative outlines more than a dozen rights for parents to inspect and oversee their child’s school records – but legal analysts have said many of those rights outlined in the measure are duplicative of or less precise than regulations already on the books.

Democrats have been keeping an eye on how educators navigate putting that policy into practice. Part of the measure was paused by the courts over concerns about how it conflicts with pre-existing law. But lawmakers are gearing up to make adjustments to the policy next year to clear up any confusion for districts and families.

The Trump factor

Elected Democrats in Washington state have struck a defiant tone over Trump’s return to the White House since election night.

The state’s treasurer has said he’s working to “insulate Washington from federal turmoil.”

Governor-elect Bob Ferguson and Attorney General-elect Nick Brown have said they are ready to take on the Trump administration in court, if it comes to that.

Lawmakers will likely play some role as new federal proposals roll out, but so far it’s unclear to what degree changes at the federal level will affect the next round of policymaking in Olympia. Most of the work done in Washington’s Legislature is bipartisan in some form, with exceptions – especially on hot-button health and safety issues, like abortion and gun control.

Part of what could contribute to a “business as usual” feel at the statehouse: After the start of the first Trump administration, the state Legislature passed several policies on climate, health care and immigration. While the president and a united federal government behind him have broad, wide-reaching authority, state laws will remain on the books unless overridden by federal court rulings or policies passed by Congress.

“Our focus is really going to be on balancing our budget in a sustainable way making sure that we can protect investments in things like behavioral health and K-12 education,” said Rep. Joe Fitzgibbon (D-Burien), the House majority leader. “It would have been our focus no matter who won the national election.”

This week, Senate Republican Leader John Braun wrote an op-ed for Centralia-based newspaper The Chronicle stating that while Republicans in the minority may be disappointed with local election results, they also aren’t powerless in Olympia. He reiterated that his caucus will again focus on policies about public safety, affordability, and support for children.

“Senate Republicans have been remarkably effective in driving the legislative agenda these past few sessions,” Braun wrote. “I am optimistic that will continue in 2025.”