What 2022's primaries say about Washington state politics

The Washington state primaries are right around the corner.

Ballots are due by Tuesday, Aug. 2. But if you've been waiting to get more information about the open seats and the candidates vying for them, we've got you covered.

KUOW's Austin Jenkins and David Hyde join host Angela King to talk about who's on the ballot and what it all means at a time when the country seems more polarized than ever before.

This interview has been edited for clarity.

Angela King: Austin, the secretary of state seat that opened up after former Secretary Kim Wyman joined the Biden administration. What is the race to replace Wyman looking like?

Austin Jenkins: It's a crowded field with eight candidates running. But I think this is really a three-way race: Democrat Steve Hobbs, who currently holds the position — remember, he was appointed from the state Senate into that position by Governor Jay Inslee; Pierce County Auditor Julie Anderson is running as a nonpartisan candidate and really touting her credentials as an elections professional and administrator; and then, I would say that the third candidate to be watching is one of the Republican candidates. Well, which one, you might ask.

There are two Republicans I'm watching: state Sen. Keith Wagoner and former state Sen. Mark Miloscia. Miloscia has raised more money, but Wagoner has the endorsements of former secretaries of state Ralph Munro and Sam Reed.

Of course, just two candidates will emerge from this primary. The question in my mind is whether, in a race like this for the top election official in the state at a time like we're living through right now, will voters stick with candidates who declare a party. Or, will they be intrigued by the idea of a candidate who is eschewing party?

So, what more is the race telling you about statewide politics right now and in the future?

Jenkins: I think we really have to wait until after the primary to see what kind of mood Republican voters in Washington state are in and what brand of candidates they're embracing. Is it candidates who are taking a cue from former President Trump or is it more traditional Republicans that are advancing? Part of what will be interesting about the primary and the primary results is to kind of see where voters are right now.

You bring up the former president and, of course, the secretary of state oversees elections and election security; kind of a fraught topic right now. What impact do you see all of this having on the primary?

Jenkins: That's certainly informing or influencing some of the candidates. One of the candidates for secretary of state, Tamborine Borrelli, leads a group that sued county auditors over the 2020 election. So, her candidacy typifies this moment we're in in terms of, frankly, large swaths of the American public doubting or even not believing in election results. On the flip side, Julie Anderson, the Pierce County auditor, says Washington has a gold-standard election system, but she says there's always room for improvement. And then, Democrat Steve Hobbs, in the job now, says he's very focused on combating election misinformation and disinformation.

Now, David, you've been following some of our key congressional races, including the big one in the 8th Congressional District with Democratic incumbent Kim Schrier. Republicans are very eager to turn that district red once again. But are there any other races that are standing out to you right now?

David Hyde: Yeah, I agree with you, Angela. The 8th is super interesting. But I'd argue the biggest national story here in Washington next week is about both the 4th Congressional District in central Washington and the 3rd Congressional District in southwest Washington, because both of these are Trump revenge races. As you'll remember, there were 10 Republicans in the U.S. House who voted to impeach Trump for the second time, two of them from this state and Trump wants them all gone. So, Trump's reputation is at stake to some extent in both of those races.

In the 3rd district, Jaime Herrera Beutler is the incumbent Republican who voted to impeach Trump. So, there are a number of Republicans who jumped into the race because of that vote. Joe Kent has been the focus because he's the Trump-backed candidate; he's a former Green Beret and, like Trump, a conspiracy theorist, especially when it comes to elections. He talks a lot about the deep state and has also voiced support for the racist "great replacement" conspiracy theory that claims liberals are trying to replace white Americans through immigration. Trump is going to be watching to see whether Jaime Herrera Beutler gets knocked off in the primary.

The other Trump revenge race is for the 4th district. Republican incumbent Dan Newhouse also voted to impeach Trump. He also attracted a number of Republican challengers, including Loren Culp, who Austin knows well as a former gubernatorial candidate, also a conspiracy theorist; he still claims with zero evidence that he lost his gubernatorial race because the election was stolen. And Culp has Trump's backing in that race. So, the bottom line in both of these: Trump's reputation kind of as a political kingmaker is on the line here next week, at least to some extent.

So any potential surprises you're kind of keeping an eye out for?

Hyde: I think what's surprising to me, in looking at both of these races, is that Donald Trump and the Democrats are rooting for the same outcome in both of these districts, to some extent. Let me explain why.

In the 3rd, Marie Perez is a Democrat, and her team thinks that she's got a real shot in this primary, essentially, because there are so many Republicans running. If most of the Democrats vote for her, she could come through. Now, if that happens, they don't want to have to run against the incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler, who would be expected to do much better in the general election. Perez's supporters will want her to run against Joe Kent, because their hope is that he'd be too extreme for voters in that district.

Similar story in the 4th district. Democratic candidate Doug White thinks he has a shot of getting through the primary, which would be kind of amazing in a district that's much more heavily Republican. It's a very Republican district in the state in terms of how they vote. And White's supporters, similarly, think they'd have a much better shot against Loren Culp. So, the bottom line here is we can literally have a situation where the Democrats are cheering the incumbents getting knocked off in the primary, and Donald Trump and his supporters are cheering that same result.

Austin, moving from the the national scene to the state scene — all of Washington state House members and about half of the state Senators are up for election this year. Which races do you see as being important, especially when we look at the big picture?

Jenkins: Well, you know, there aren't that many battleground seats left. Most of these 49 legislative districts are pretty safe. But some of the more competitive matchups are up north in Whatcom County, a district that includes Whidbey Island; on the Kitsap Peninsula, where there's a big Senate race going on; and then, in the 30th and 47th districts in South King County. Republicans are also making a push this year in some of the suburban districts around Seattle where they haven't fared well in recent years. So, what's at stake? Who's in charge of the House and the Senate, who has the majorities that determine the legislation that gets consideration, gets hearings, and potentially gets passed. This is a year where Republicans are feeling very bullish about their potential opportunities for pickups.

Do you think they have a shot at flipping things here in Washington state?

Jenkins: At this point, my sense is, and it seems like the conventional wisdom, that Democrats will lose some seats but probably not the majorities. I say that, in part, because some of the recent polling, in the wake of Roe v. Wade being overturned, seems to favor Democrats and may have taken some of the wind out of this idea of a Republican red wave. But it's early yet. There are a number of months between now and November. Republicans are well-financed and resourced this year, probably the best they've been in a number of years.

And I'll just add this little kind of historical reference: I wasn't here for it, but 1994 was the year of the "Gingrich Revolution" when Republicans took control of Congress. Here in the Washington House, going into that election, Democrats had a supermajority, and they lost that majority in that election. So, it can happen.

So, David, what's your take?

Hyde: I think Austin's right. I mean, a month ago, I would have said for sure Republicans are energized. You can see it in the polls. The president's party always struggles in the midterms . Biden's not very popular, inflation is not popular, gas prices are not popular. But on the other side of this, as Austin said, the Supreme Court's decisions might have changed that equation, especially in overturning Roe.I think it may help Kim Schrier in the 8th Congressional District. But again, as Austin says, it's a long time between now and November.