Unemployment in Washington state expected to peak by September

By the end of September, the unemployment rate in Washington state is expected peak at 19.2%. That’s according to the state's Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

A jobs recovery is also expected — but not until 2025.

Non-farm employment is expected to pick up next year and not let up. By 2024, projections put unemployment at 5.9%; by 2025, it arrives at 4.9%. That is slightly better than a previous forecast issued by the council in February — before the coronavirus crisis began in earnest.

Manufacturing, such as that by Boeing, will still be down by 2025, according to the estimates. It's the same for construction, which was expected to be lower even before the pandemic. But now its declines are expected to be more severe.

But those industries only make up 13% of the state's economy. And our economy is strong in services, including technology.

This preliminary forecast is subject to revision in June. It's a sketch of the future as seen from now, so outcomes may vary.

But for now, a picture is forming of how Washington's economy will fare in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis.