Will the race for Washington land commissioner come down to two Republicans?

A new poll shows all five Democrats trailing the two Republicans running to become Washington's next Commissioner of Public Lands – but many voters still haven’t decided.

Washington state’s top-two primary next week will see the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general, regardless of party.

Because of that system — and the totally open primary where anyone can run for office, and often multiple people from the same party do — sometimes the top two vote-getters in the primary are from the same party.

New polling shows that scenario could happen next week in the statewide race for Commissioner of Public Lands. The lands commissioner is the elected custodian of state forests and waters, who manages Washington’s response to wildfires and the Department of Natural Resources (DNR).

It’s an unusually crowded race, with two Republicans and no less than five Democrats in the mix.

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A new poll from left-wing think tank the Northwest Progressive Institute shows that those two Republicans could cruise to the top spots next Tuesday: former Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler is polling at 18%, and Sue Kuehl Pederson, a former environmental analyst and power manager, has 12%. The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling last week.

The Democrats are all far behind, with King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove at 6%, Redmond City Councilmember Jeralee Anderson at 5%, state Sen. Kevin Van De Wege at 5%, DNR Director of Tribal Relations Patrick DePoe at 4%, and wildland firefighter and DNR manager Allen Lebovitz at 3%.

The (big) caveat: Almost half of the 581 voters surveyed (48%) were undecided.

“It's gravely concerning,” said Andrew Villeneuve, founder and executive director of the Northwest Progressive Institute, “because we have good candidates running for this office. But the problem is, none of them have run particularly strong campaigns thus far — at least not as measured by our polling.”

It’s not just a divided liberal wing, however. Republicans appear split between Herrera Beutler, who voted to impeach former President Trump in 2021 and lost reelection the next year, and Kuehl Pederson, who got the endorsement of the state Republican Party in April. When Herrera Beutler spoke at the same convention, Republican delegates booed and turned their backs to her.

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Conservation and climate-minded Democrats have been worried for some time that, come November, they’ll face a choice between two Republicans who are friendly to the timber industry. It is worth noting that Democrats DePoe and Van De Wege have been supported by timber interests as well.

Villeneuve said rather than vote for a Republican, Democrats would likely launch a longshot write-in campaign. Due to Washington’s “sore loser” law, none of the Democrats currently running could serve in that role.

The last time this happened to Democrats, in the 2016 state treasurer’s race, many left-leaning organizations threw their support behind moderate Republican Duane Davidson, who beat the other Republican by a wide margin.

Alex Hays, Davidson’s consultant in that race, said he thinks it’s possible the same thing will happen this year. He doesn’t believe either Republican would differ much from the last two Democrats who have held the seat.

“Our state is designed to have public working forests. It's written into the law,” Hays said. “And so even the most radical environmentalist is going to be utterly constrained by the statutory limits on the office.”

RELATED: Hilary Franz, Commissioner of Public Lands, on wildfires and forestry

Of course, with 48% of voters undecided, there’s still a chance a Democrat could finish in one of the top two spots, especially a top fundraiser like Van De Wege, who’s had more than $1 million spent so far from lumber companies, tribes, and firefighter unions to elect him.

“I would say right now, based on the amount of money spent, we would see a general election runoff with former Congresswoman Herrera Beutler and one of the two top-spending Democratic candidates,” said Christian Sinderman, who worked on campaigns for the last two lands commissioners. This year, Sinderman is working on an independent expenditure campaign for Upthegrove.