Washington Republicans face a tough path to the governor’s office. Here’s why

Washington last elected a Republican governor in the 1980s. This year, with Gov. Jay Inslee stepping down, the Washington State Republican Party has another chance to break its decades-long losing streak.

Many observers have said it’s possible: Republicans came close to winning the governor’s office the last two times the job was wide open – in 2004 and 2012.

But 2024 is shaping up to be a very different race, and Republicans have a tough road ahead of them to election day.

RELATED: Ferguson, Reichert to face off in Washington's race for governor this November

Past nail-biters

Republicans came so close to putting a governor in Washington’s top office in 2004 that the race made national headlines. It was one of the closest such races in U.S. history.

The Republican, Dino Rossi, was even certified as the winner at first, but ultimately, he lost to Democrat Christine Gregoire by 133 votes – out of nearly 3 million votes cast – after multiple recounts and months of turmoil in the courts.

“It was the only time in my life when I understood the phrase ‘I need a drink,’” Chris Vance, then-head of the state GOP, told the Seattle Met while reflecting on that race.

When the job was open eight years later in 2012, the Republican candidate was competitive again. After running a close and expensive campaign, Republican Rob McKenna lost to Jay Inslee by just three percentage points.

RELATED: Chris Vance is once again a Republican ... for Harris

Randy Pepple, a longtime Republican strategist in the state who managed McKenna’s campaign for governor, said there are some things this year’s race has in common with 2012 – specifically, Democrats’ style of political ads.

“The key similarity is facing off against a Democrat party that is just in attack mode at all times,” Pepple said.

The 2024 race

This year’s Democratic candidate is state Attorney General Bob Ferguson, who has been campaigning on his record in his current office and his experience with the King County Council, while promising to be a “change agent” if elected governor.

Despite Democrats holding all statewide elected positions, Ferguson has told his supporters to expect a close contest.

“I’m going to need your help to win this campaign,” Ferguson told his fellow party members at their state convention.

He’s facing off against Republican Dave Reichert, a former congressman with a history working in law enforcement. Reichert has made his experience as King County sheriff a central part of his campaign and has positioned himself as the candidate who will bring “balance” to Olympia.

Crime tops the list of key issues for many voters – alongside other topics like the economy and housing – and both candidates have promised to increase the number of police officers working in the state. Both candidates also have included a focus on the state’s opioid crisis in their public safety plans.

RELATED: Crime and drugs are Seattle voters' top concerns, new survey finds

But Democrats are heading into the final weeks with more advantages.

How the GOP compares in 2024

For starters, there’s less money coming into this year’s gubernatorial race overall, and Reichert is being majorly outspent.

Public data shows Reichert had raised more than $6 million in the campaign as of mid-October. Ferguson meanwhile had raised more than twice that amount.

“It’s very, very difficult to compete in that type of environment,” Pepple said.

Outside groups, like the Democratic Governors Association, have also spent millions on anti-Reichert TV ads on hot-button issues like abortion.

RELATED: Reichert says he supports abortion rights during second WA gubernatorial debate

Meanwhile, the Republican Governors Association has offered words of support for Reichert, but has so far not spent any money to bolster his campaign. That’s despite the association plunking down millions on TV ads in the governor’s race in North Carolina, a key state in the presidential election.

Washington and North Carolina’s gubernatorial contests are among only four such races in the entire country that are competitive, per the Cook Political Report.

Reichert didn’t do as well in this year’s August primary election as Republicans did in those open contests in 2004 and 2012. Competitive Republicans in the past were much closer to their Democratic opponents in the primary – within at least five percentage points. But this year, Ferguson had a comfortable double-digit lead over Reichert, earning about 45% of the vote compared to about 27% that went to Reichert.

This poor primary night showing was partly because of a split among Republican voters. Ahead of this year’s primary, delegates at the state’s Republican Party convention endorsed a different candidate over Reichert: Semi Bird, who is more aligned with Donald Trump. Bird won just about 11% of the primary vote, knocking him out of the general election race, but he has so far refused to endorse Reichert in his place.

Democrats have spent a lot of time trying to tie Reichert to the Republican presidential nominee, but as Reichert tries to win the middle-of-the-road voters, he has distanced himself from the former president.

“I am not supporting Mr. Trump,” Reichert said at a gubernatorial debate last month, in response to criticism lobbed by Ferguson.

RELATED: Why Washington is a bellwether for the presidential election

Strategist Pepple said Trump at the top of the ticket could hurt Reichert in a state like Washington.

“Very few rational candidates would choose to put themselves on a ballot led by Donald Trump in Washington state,” Pepple said.

Still, turnout is expected to be much higher this fall than it was in the primary, and there are four voter initiatives on the ballot that aim to repeal or roll back a handful of climate, tax, and health policies approved by Democrats in Olympia. Republicans hope the measures boost turnout among conservative voters.

Pepple said those ballot measures could also be helping Reichert draw a contrast between himself and Democrats on critical local policy issues.

But time is running out for candidates to make their case. Voting starts Friday.