Climate Change May Squeeze Hydropower, but Boost Winter Wheat

Tom Banse
02/12/2009

Around 600 people are expected in Seattle today (Thursday) to dissect a new study on the regional effects of global warming. The conference and the research comes from the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington. Its researchers made the most detailed attempt yet to describe what life in the Northwest will be like in a warmer climate. Correspondent Tom Banse has the findings and reaction.

More than 60 government and university scientists from Washington and Idaho collaborated to paint one picture of our future. The regional climate model predicts an average rate of warming of half a degree Fahrenheit per decade if business–as–usual continues. Researchers then projected the consequences in previously unseen detail. For example, Washington State climatologist Phil Mote forecasts the acreage consumed by wildfires across the Northwest will double by the 2040s.

Mote: "Our models are really unanimous in saying that summers will be quite a bit hotter and most of them say they'll be drier as well. So that really points towards large increases in forest fires."

The summers will also be worse for hydropower production. Snowpack runs off earlier, leaving less water to make electricity during peak demand. Plus, that summer energy demand soars from air conditioners running harder.

Dick Wallace is a member of the Northwest Power and Conservation Council. He says the planning agency will factor climate change into its next long–range plan.

Wallace: "We've managed so far. I can't say that we've got any sort of silver bullet or magic answer. I think we need to keep working on the challenges from the different angles."

It's not all bad. Milder winters and more carbon dioxide in the air could help some Northwest crops grow better. Researchers crunched rosy numbers for farmers who grow winter wheat. Nicole Berg–Tobin lives on a wheat farm near Paterson, Washington. However, she's not sold on coming out a winner.

Berg–Tobin: "If it's coming, great. But every year is different. That why I like to come back to farming, because every year is different."

The climate change report was requested and paid for by the Washington Legislature. Lawmakers were inspired by a similar study done for California. Among ruling Democrats, this report confirms fears and increases the urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But a rash move could be costly warns Republican state Representative Shelly Short of northeast Washington.

Short: "I think we need to step back. We need to take a breath and we need to look at how we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions in this state in a way that doesn't hurt our businesses and our families."

In Olympia and Salem, Democrats are pushing a cap–and–trade system to reduce emissions. Representative Short argues that strategy puts the economy at too much risk. That line of thinking appears to be getting traction. I'm Tom Banse in Olympia.

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